Break-even
Break-even fill rate of 89.7% means the café needs most of its assumed sales just to cover operating costs, leaving little room for a weaker launch or quiet trading periods.
Café sample report
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Sample reportSmall Business Feasibility Report
Sydney CBD Café — Sample
Café / Coffee Shop
200 George Street, Sydney NSW 2000, Australia
Indicative monthly profit of $4,620 on 6.7% margin, with a elevated risk profile.
Monthly revenue$68,497
Monthly profit$4,620
Margin6.7%
Risk profileElevated
Generated 28 October 2026Hypothetical business · Sample reportsmallbizsim.com
Contents
- Executive snapshot
- Revenue and cost composition
- Key metrics explained
- Feasibility narrative
- Competitor intelligence
- Price positioning
- Pros and trade-offs
- Local developments
- Customer voice
- Neighbourhood profile
- Two-year forecast
- Cashflow view
- Outcome range and profit levers
- Business insights
- Industry benchmarks
- Prioritised recommendations
- Evidence and next steps
- Appendix — assumptions used
- Appendix — report notes
This report is an indicative feasibility simulation. Figures are estimates based on the stated assumptions; validate key assumptions with qualified professionals before making commitments.
Overview
Executive snapshot
This scenario estimates $68,497 in monthly revenue and $4,620 in monthly profit, a 6.7% margin, breaking even in 51.4 mo and paying back startup capital in 51.4 mo. The overall risk profile is elevated (85/100).
Pursue a weekday convenience proposition for office customers, but do not commit to a lease yet. First establish whether this is the advertised Avenue operation or a separate unit, then prove why customers would choose it. The thin operating cushion makes dependable service and a tightly controlled food offer more important than an ambitious launch.
Monthly revenue$68,497
Monthly fixed cost$40,030
Monthly variable cost$23,847
Monthly profit$4,620
Margin6.7%
Break-even51.4 moto cover monthly costs
Payback51.4 moto recover startup capital
Risk score85/100elevated
Startup cost$237,500
Monthly revenue, cost and profit
Monthly snapshot
What drives revenue and cost
Each area is sized by its share of the modelled steady-state month.
Revenue composition
Cost composition
What the numbers mean
Key metrics explained
Payback
Payback months of 51.4 is a model-defined result, not cash recovery: Cash payback months remains unreached within the supplied simulation horizon.
Margin
Margin of 6.7% leaves limited room for waste, extra staffing or discounting, so menu complexity and peak productivity must be controlled together.
Risk
The stress tests produce positive Monthly profit in 73.8% of scenarios under their assumptions, but the loss-making downside means this is not a real-world probability of commercial success.
Feasibility narrative
Location fit for this café / coffee shop
200 George Street: A conditional case for an office-focused cafe
A cafe at 200 George Street could suit weekday office customers if the proposed unit is visible and convenient on their actual routes. The strongest argument is the building’s identified office tenants, not assumed street traffic. However, a cafe already advertises breakfast and lunch at this address, so the first decision is whether you are assessing that operation or a separate unit that would need a distinct reason to visit. [1][2][3]
Conditional assessment
The building offers a credible office-customer opportunity, conditional on convenient access and a clearly defined buying occasion. It does not yet establish a suitable cafe premises. Proceed with a weekday-focused concept only after identifying the unit, verifying the same-address offer and testing actual customer routes; reject the convenience proposition if the entrance requires a meaningful detour or the unit cannot support the intended service. [1][2][3]
Feasibility narrative
Location fit for this café / coffee shop — continued
Feasibility narrative
Location fit for this café / coffee shop — continued
Feasibility narrative
Location fit for this café / coffee shop — continued
Sources and research limits3 sources
- EY CENTRE, 200 George Street, Sydney | Mirvac · premises; observation date not established
- EY Australia - Office location and contact information | EY - Central Australia · premises; observation date not established
- Avenue on George - Avenue Group · Published 2018-06-10 · premises; observation date not established
- The building is identifiable, but the proposed cafe unit, frontage and availability are not established.
- Historical building completion does not establish the proposed unit's current fit-out or permission for cafe use.
- The supplied texts provide no entrance footfall counts or evidence sufficient to quantify cafe demand.
- The worker and resident travel-to-work pages were unavailable as readable original text.
- The merchant page establishes an advertised cafe offer, not financial performance or independently confirmed current operation.
- 2 original source page(s) could not be read and were excluded from verified findings.
Public-source desktop research, not a premises inspection. Commercial interpretations and operating proposals are judgments to validate, not measured demand.
Competitor intelligence
Who you're up against nearby
Comparable café / coffee shop businesses around this location, so you can spot saturation and the gaps they leave open.
Similar businesses nearby38Within 1500 m
On your block18Within 400 m
Nearest competitor29 mClosest of the same type
Average rating4.35/5Based on ~1,695 reviews
Competitor proximity
Competitor intelligence
Market signals around this location
Demand anchors — 100/100 (high)
| Transit access | high |
|---|---|
| Workday activity | high |
| Education activity | high |
| Visitor activity | high |
Transformed supporting-place score within 1.5 km; it does not measure customer visits.
Competitor offer mix
- Offered
- Not offered
- Not published
- Accessible entrance100%33 of 33 confirmed profiles · 5 not published
- Contactless payment100%35 of 35 confirmed profiles · 3 not published
- Credit cards100%34 of 34 confirmed profiles · 4 not published
- Dine-in100%33 of 33 confirmed profiles · 5 not published
- Vegetarian options100%17 of 17 confirmed profiles · 21 not published
- Takeaway94%31 of 33 confirmed profiles · 5 not published
- Accessible toilets93%13 of 14 confirmed profiles · 24 not published
- Suitable for groups93%13 of 14 confirmed profiles · 24 not published
- Customer toilets83%19 of 23 confirmed profiles · 15 not published
- Parking listed79%15 of 19 confirmed profiles · 19 not published
- Outdoor seating74%17 of 23 confirmed profiles · 15 not published
- Reservations48%11 of 23 confirmed profiles · 15 not published
- Delivery41%12 of 29 confirmed profiles · 9 not published
- Dogs allowed31%4 of 13 confirmed profiles · 25 not published
- Accessible parking29%6 of 21 confirmed profiles · 17 not published
- Children's menu26%6 of 23 confirmed profiles · 15 not published
Percentages include only competitor profiles with confirmed information for that feature.
Opening soon
| Osaka Donut Lab (Sydney) | November 2026 · 73 m |
|---|
Limited nearby sample; not an exhaustive development pipeline.
Competitor intelligence
Direct competitors nearby
Comparable businesses returned for this location, ordered by distance.
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Competitor intelligence
Direct competitors nearby — continued
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- 12Only Coffee Project George st233 m away · Shop T13, Ground floor lobby/259 George St, Sydney NSW 2000, AustraliaTakeaway · Dine-in
- 13
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Competitor intelligence
Direct competitors nearby — continued
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Competitor intelligence
Direct competitors nearby — continued
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- 31Coffee Shop942 m away · 44 Market St, Sydney NSW 2000, AustraliaTakeaway · Dine-in · Accessible entrance
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Competitor intelligence
Direct competitors nearby — continued
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Competitor intelligence
Opening hours
Published trading patterns across nearby competitors reveal thin coverage and potential early or late trading gaps.
Typical opening06:24 – 17:42Average open–close window
Days open per week5.5 / 7Average across competitors
Open before 7am36%Share of competitors — early-bird gap if low
Open past 8pm32%Share of competitors — evening gap if low
Trading hours across the field
Price positioning
Published prices nearby and beyond
Published nearby prices and, when available, a separately labeled broader-area benchmark. Validate your own offer and unit economics separately.
Local prices · within 1.5 km
$1.00 – $120.0029 priced shops
$ Budget · most common published level
Decision support
Pros and trade-offs
Assess a weekday-led café offering reliable coffee and a compact food menu for short office breaks, with seating or shared orders added only where the identified unit and customer evidence support them.
What this means for your decision
Commercial judgmentThe strongest opportunity is convenient repeat purchasing by identified office customers. The most consequential trade-off is investing in a food-capable operation before proving that the exact unit can capture those purchases and offer something distinct from Avenue. Continue with a focused weekday proposition if customer testing and premises evidence support it; change the format if only narrower occasions work, and reconsider the site if convenience or affordable operational suitability cannot be established.
Basis and sources
- Mirvac lists EY, Mirvac and AGL Energy as major building tenants. EY's own location page lists its Sydney office at Level 34, 200 George Street. · premises
- Avenue on George advertises a cafe at Tenancy 2, 200 George Street, with sit-down breakfast and licensed lunch from midday. Its advertised hours are Monday to Friday, 6:30am to 4pm, with weekends closed. · premises
- Verified location research and unresolved limitations
- Saved assumptions and deterministic results
- General business judgment
Decision support
Pros and trade-offs — continued
Decision support
Pros and trade-offs — continued
Decision support
Pros and trade-offs — continued
Local developments
What's shaping this market
Cited context across regulation, costs, pricing, demand, competition, suppliers and recent local activity. These developments do not change the modelled figures.
Regulations & licensing
City of Sydney updated outdoor dining guidelines as of 1 October 2026CityNeutral2026-10-01
The City’s outdoor dining guidelines were published on 1 October 2026 and set out the requirements for outdoor dining or standing areas on footpaths and other public spaces, including clear paths of travel and application requirements. The Council says the guidelines are for assessing outdoor dining applications and may allow more flexible use of footpath space.
For this business: A café should check whether its frontage can support outdoor seating or standing service under the updated rules, and verify clearance, furniture and application requirements before budgeting for trading space.
Date mentioned by source:
Source: cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au — https://www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/council-governance-administration/outdoor-dining-guidelines
NSW seafood menu labelling applied from 1 July 2026StateHeadwind2026-06-11
Service NSW states that from 1 July 2026 hospitality businesses must label seafood menu items with their country of origin. The same page says food service and related retail businesses must meet NSW food safety standards and related compliance requirements.
For this business: If the café plans to sell seafood items, the menu and point-of-sale materials need to be checked for country-of-origin labelling, alongside normal food safety compliance.
Date mentioned by source:
Source: service.nsw.gov.au — https://www.service.nsw.gov.au/services/food-serving-and-safety
Local business updates
Sydney Town Hall square moved into state-significant development assessment on 9 October 2026CityNeutral
City of Sydney says the new square opposite Sydney Town Hall had a development application lodged on 1 October 2026 and was declared state significant development on 9 October 2026. The page says demolition and construction are planned to begin in 2028 and all works in 2031.
For this business: A café near Town Hall should treat this as a long-running future precinct change that may alter pedestrian flows, access and visitor patterns, but should verify staging and any construction impacts as details are finalised.
Project status: ApprovedDate mentioned by source:
Source: cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au — https://www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/building-new-infrastructure/town-hall-square
City of Sydney approved a major York Street / Clarence Street redevelopment in October 2025CityNeutral
City meeting papers show the Central Sydney Planning Committee resolved to grant consent for DA D/2024/1018 covering 71, 73 and 75 York Street, 46-52 King Street and 104-118 Clarence Street, Sydney. The committee papers describe it as a mixed CBD redevelopment, and the decision material indicates consent was granted subject to conditions.
For this business: If this project proceeds on the site as approved, it may add construction activity and eventually more workers, residents or visitors within the CBD catchment that supports daytime café trade.
Project status: ApprovedDate mentioned by source:
Source: meetings.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au — https://meetings.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/documents/s99854/Information%20Relevant%20to%20Item%204%20-%20Development%20Application%2071%2073%20and%2075%20York%20Street%2046-52%20King%20Stre.pdf
City of Sydney approved redevelopment at 5-11 Bridge Street, SydneyCityNeutral
City decision material for DA D/2025/1335 says the application was approved subject to conditions and found consistent with the SP5 Metropolitan Centre zone and related planning controls. The approval was published by the City’s meeting system in September 2026.
For this business: A café operator in the CBD should verify the project program and likely tenant mix, because approved large-scale development near the core business district can change foot traffic, lunch demand and nearby competition over time.
Project status: ApprovedDate mentioned by source:
Source: meetings.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au — https://meetings.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/ieDecisionDetails.aspx?ID=6595
Customer voice
What customers value and what needs work
What customers value
- Friendly staff make the cafe feel welcoming
Customers often praised warm, helpful service and said staff made the visit pleasant or memorable. This came through in quick interactions, recommendations, and attentive check-ins.
- Coffee is a standout draw
Many reviews highlighted coffee as the main reason to return, especially for flat whites, mochas, cappuccinos, and specialty brews. The praise focused on taste, balance, and freshness rather than just speed or convenience.
- Breakfast and snacks are seen as tasty and satisfying
Reviewers liked the food alongside the drinks, especially toasties, pastries, bagels, brunch plates, and quick bites. The comments often described the food as fresh, tasty, or good value for a casual cafe stop.
- Atmosphere and seating make it pleasant to linger
Customers appreciated cafes that felt cozy, attractive, or relaxed, with some mentioning outdoor seating, indoor comfort, or a nice vibe. The setting mattered as part of the experience, not just the menu.
What frustrates customers
- Service can be too slow for a quick cafe stop
Some reviewers complained that orders took too long or that staff were not moving with enough urgency. That was especially frustrating when they were in a hurry or expecting a fast coffee run.
- Coffee quality was inconsistent in a few visits
A few customers said the drink was stale, lukewarm, or otherwise below expectations for a cafe coffee. These complaints were about the preparation of the drink itself, not just the wait.
- Food freshness or portion quality sometimes disappointed
Some negative reviews focused on dishes that seemed underwhelming, overly salty, old, or not made to the expected standard. The criticism was about the food on the plate rather than the cafe setting.
- Value and pricing were a pain point for some guests
A few reviewers felt the food or drinks were too expensive for what they received, or that they were charged in ways that felt unreasonable. The issue was mainly about price relative to quality or size.
Recent feedback
30 July 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
- Warm service and efficient handling of busy periods
Recent reviewers praised staff who stayed friendly, gave recommendations, and kept things moving even when the cafe was busy. A few comments also noted that good service made the visit feel especially welcoming.
- Specialty coffee and creative drinks are drawing people in
Recent guests highlighted well-made coffee and distinctive drinks such as matcha, mocha, and black sesame lattes. The appeal was the flavor, balance, and sense that the cafe offers something a bit different from a standard coffee stop.
- Breakfast, toasties, and desserts are a big part of the appeal
Several recent reviews mentioned enjoying toasties, brunch plates, pastries, and sweet items alongside coffee. People seemed especially happy when the food felt fresh, flavorful, or a little more distinctive than average cafe fare.
- Some recent visits were hurt by waits, temperature, or value issues
Recent mixed and negative reviews mentioned slow service, drinks served at the wrong temperature, or food that did not feel worth the price. In those cases, the cafe experience fell short even when the menu had promise.
Local data
Neighbourhood profile
Local economy
| Resident population | 253 | Australian Bureau of Statistics — 2021 Census (GCP) · 2021-08-10 |
|---|---|---|
| Population density | 2,500/km² | Australian Bureau of Statistics — 2021 Census (GCP) · 2021-08-10 |
| Daytime (worker) population | 290,697 | Australian Bureau of Statistics — 2021 Census (Place of Work) · 2021-08-10 |
| Median age | 34 yrs | Australian Bureau of Statistics — 2021 Census (GCP) · 2021-08-10 |
| Number of households | 159 | Australian Bureau of Statistics — 2021 Census (GCP) · 2021-08-10 |
| Average household size | 1 | Australian Bureau of Statistics — 2021 Census (GCP) · 2021-08-10 |
| Median household income | $91,572 | Australian Bureau of Statistics — 2021 Census (GCP) · 2021-08-10 |
| Unemployment rate | 7.3% | Australian Bureau of Statistics — 2021 Census (GCP) · 2021-08-10 |
| Employment rate | 92.7% | Australian Bureau of Statistics — 2021 Census (GCP) · 2021-08-10 |
| Bachelor degree or higher | 58.7% | Australian Bureau of Statistics — 2021 Census (GCP) · 2021-08-10 |
| Residential median rent | $2,145/mo | Australian Bureau of Statistics — 2021 Census (GCP) · 2021-08-10 |
| Leading industries |
| Australian Bureau of Statistics — 2021 Census (GCP) · 2021-08-10 |
Local map data
| Small business density | 205 | Local map data · 2026-10-28 |
|---|---|---|
| Foot traffic index | 88/100 · Very high | Local map data · 2026-10-28 |
| Schools nearby | 22 | Local map data · 2026-10-28 |
24-month outlook
Two-year forecast
Modelled month by month from the saved assumptions, including the ramp from launch to steady-state trading.
Ramp to monthly profit
Modelled monthly operating profit as demand matures over the first year. The dashed line marks break-even (zero profit).
Break-even cash trajectory
Cumulative cash position including the upfront startup outlay. Crossing zero means startup capital has been recovered.
24-month outlook
Two-year forecast — continued
Revenue ramp (first year)
Modelled monthly revenue as the business ramps from opening to steady-state demand.
Customer & transaction volume
Modelled monthly customer transactions (visits, orders, covers, cycles or units, depending on the business) as demand ramps to steady state. Divide by trading days for the daily average.
Cashflow view
Cumulative cash across the full projection
Cashflow view
Month-by-month cash
Starts with the upfront outlay, then tracks each month. Year-end rows highlight the annual cash position.
| Month | Net cash this month | Cumulative cash |
|---|---|---|
| Start | -$237,500 | -$237,500 |
| M1 | -$26,635 | -$264,135 |
| M2 | -$22,728 | -$286,863 |
| M3 | -$18,821 | -$305,685 |
| M4 | -$14,915 | -$320,600 |
| M5 | -$11,008 | -$331,607 |
| M6 | -$7,101 | -$338,708 |
| M7 | -$3,194 | -$341,902 |
| M8 | $713 | -$341,190 |
| M9 | $4,620 | -$336,570 |
| M10 | $4,620 | -$331,951 |
| M11 | $4,620 | -$327,331 |
| M12Year 1 | $4,620 | -$322,712 |
Cashflow view
Month-by-month cash — continued
| Month | Net cash this month | Cumulative cash |
|---|---|---|
| M13 | $4,620 | -$318,092 |
| M14 | $4,620 | -$313,472 |
| M15 | $4,620 | -$308,853 |
| M16 | $4,620 | -$304,233 |
| M17 | $4,620 | -$299,614 |
| M18 | $4,620 | -$294,994 |
| M19 | $4,620 | -$290,375 |
| M20 | $4,620 | -$285,755 |
| M21 | $4,620 | -$281,136 |
| M22 | $4,620 | -$276,516 |
| M23 | $4,620 | -$271,897 |
| M24Year 2 | $4,620 | -$267,277 |
Deeper checks
Outcome range and profit levers
Pessimistic (p10)-$4,875monthly profit
Median (p50)$4,108monthly profit
Optimistic (p90)$13,864monthly profit
Chance of profit73.8%across simulations
Biggest profit levers
| Trading Days per Month | ±$4,465 / month |
|---|---|
| Coffee Cups per Day | ±$2,531 / month |
| Average Coffee Price | ±$2,531 / month |
| Food Items per Day | ±$1,934 / month |
| Average Food Price | ±$1,934 / month |
| Food COGS | ±$1,400 / month |
Business insights
Café daypart and basket-mix model
Models coffee throughput, food attachment, gross margin, roster intensity and fit-out payback for a neighbourhood café.
Model version v2
average transaction valuefood attach rateprime costdaypart demandbarista throughput
Monthly coffee cups6,760Core beverage volume across trading days.
Monthly food items2,470Food attachment volume that lifts average basket value.
Contribution margin65.2%Revenue left after variable costs, before fixed overhead and startup recovery.
Fixed-cost intensity62.7%Share of total monthly cost that must be covered even if demand drops.
Startup capital cover3.5 monthsStartup capital expressed as months of steady-state revenue — e.g. 2.3 means the upfront investment equals about 2.3 months of revenue (not a dollar figure).
Unit economics and operating checks
Deterministic statistics for margin quality, overhead pressure and capital recovery.
| Monthly contribution | $44,650 | Contribution covers fixed overhead. |
|---|---|---|
| Operating margin | 6.7% | The steady-state model is profitable. |
| Cash payback | Not reached | Payback is not reached within the simulated ramp. |
- Compare coffee and food gross margins separately; food can add sales while diluting margin.
- Roster cost should be reviewed by peak and off-peak daypart.
Business insights model
Business model visuals
Revenue and cost by line
For each revenue line the bar length is its monthly revenue, split into the cost of goods (COGS) needed to produce it and the gross margin left over. This shows both your revenue mix and how much of each line is eaten by cost.
Cost structure
Compares variable costs with fixed overhead to show operational leverage.
Capital exposure
Compares startup capital with the deepest simulated cash trough.
Industry benchmarks
How your numbers compare
Each modelled metric is checked against a typical healthy range for this business type.
| Metric | Your model | Healthy band | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin after COGS | 65.2% | 60% – 72% | In healthy bandBeverage-led cafés hold 60-72% gross margin before labour. |
| Net operating margin | 6.7% | 5% – 12% | In healthy bandPrime cost (COGS + wages) keeps café net margins thin even when busy. |
| Fit-out payback | Not reached | 18 months – 36 months | Above bandCafé fit-out and equipment usually take 1.5-3 years to recover. |
Action plan
Prioritised recommendations
- Resolve the exact tenancy and whether Avenue is the operation being assessed before defining the concept.
- Test a focused coffee-and-food proposition on actual office buying occasions, not broad activity indicators.
- Commit only after a quote-backed model reconciles staffing, trading days and cumulative cash exposure.
Report intel
Evidence notes and next steps
Bottom line
The evidence supports investigating an office-led concept, not approving a particular café unit or its saved sales assumptions. Resolve tenancy identity first, test the purchase proposition second, and substantiate operating costs and cash capacity last; each step can change what the next step should assess.
Report intel
Evidence notes and next steps — continued
Report intel
Evidence notes and next steps — continued
Report intel
Evidence notes and next steps — continued
Appendix
Assumptions used
Staffing
| Mia — Café manager | 38 hours/week at $38.50/hour |
|---|---|
| Josh — Head barista | 38 hours/week at $33/hour |
| Priya — Barista | 30 hours/week at $30.50/hour |
| Leo — Cook | 38 hours/week at $32/hour |
| Hannah — Kitchen hand (casual) | 20 hours/week at $31.50/hour |
| Sam — Floor staff (casual) | 18 hours/week at $29/hour |
| Payroll method | Detailed staff roster |
Startup Capital
| Lease Bond | 25,500 AUD |
|---|---|
| Fit-out Cost | 120,000 AUD |
| Equipment Cost | 65,000 AUD |
| Opening Stock | 8,000 AUD |
| Launch Marketing | 10,000 AUD |
| Licences and Setup | 9,000 AUD |
Fixed Costs
| Monthly Rent | 8,500 AUD |
|---|---|
| Monthly Insurance | 450 AUD |
| Monthly Marketing | 1,200 AUD |
| Monthly Utilities | 2,400 AUD |
| Other Fixed Costs | 1,500 AUD |
Variable Costs
| Food COGS | 0.42 % |
|---|---|
| Beans and Milk COGS | 0.28 % |
Revenue
| Food Items per Day | 95 items |
|---|---|
| Average Food Price | 13.5 AUD |
| Coffee Cups per Day | 260 cups |
| Average Coffee Price | 5.2 AUD |
| Trading Days per Month | 26 days |
Appendix
Report notes
- Local map data
- Local map aggregate data
- Local map future-opening data
- Local map data reviews
- Web search
- service.nsw.gov.au — https://www.service.nsw.gov.au/services/food-serving-and-safety
- meetings.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au — https://meetings.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/documents/s99854/Information%20Relevant%20to%20Item%204%20-%20Development%20Application%2071%2073%20and%2075%20York%20Street%2046-52%20King%20Stre.pdf
- cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au — https://www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/building-new-infrastructure/town-hall-square
- meetings.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au — https://meetings.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/ieDecisionDetails.aspx?ID=6595
- cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au — https://www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/council-governance-administration/outdoor-dining-guidelines
- Official census statistics
- smallbizsim deterministic feasibility model
This report is an indicative feasibility simulation and not financial, legal, or investment advice. Validate the key assumptions, local data and any cited developments with qualified professionals before signing a lease, buying a business, or committing capital.
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