Break-even
Break even revenue of AUD $80,379 requires substantial sales before fixed costs are covered, so the launch should establish repeat purchases rather than rely on opening-week interest.
Bakery sample report
Explore production costs, staffing and the sales needed to cover them. Every premium section is open to read — free, no sign-up.
Sample reportSmall Business Feasibility Report
Sydney CBD Bakery — Sample
Bakery / Pastry Shop
61 York Street, Sydney NSW 2000, Australia
Indicative monthly profit of $13,955 on 13.3% margin, with a moderate risk profile.
Monthly revenue$105,300
Monthly profit$13,955
Margin13.3%
Risk profileModerate
Generated 28 October 2026Hypothetical business · Sample reportsmallbizsim.com
Contents
- Executive snapshot
- Revenue and cost composition
- Key metrics explained
- Feasibility narrative
- Competitor intelligence
- Price positioning
- Pros and trade-offs
- Local developments
- Customer voice
- Neighbourhood profile
- Two-year forecast
- Cashflow view
- Outcome range and profit levers
- Business insights
- Industry benchmarks
- Prioritised recommendations
- Evidence and next steps
- Appendix — assumptions used
- Appendix — report notes
This report is an indicative feasibility simulation. Figures are estimates based on the stated assumptions; validate key assumptions with qualified professionals before making commitments.
Overview
Executive snapshot
This scenario estimates $105,300 in monthly revenue and $13,955 in monthly profit, a 13.3% margin, breaking even in 22.3 mo and paying back startup capital in 22.3 mo. The overall risk profile is moderate (60/100).
Keep this as a bakery-first proposition, but do not commit to the proposed premises yet. The commercial case depends on customers choosing a distinctive baked range through convenient collection, not on general CBD activity or an assumed trading-hour gap. Resolve the site, test paid demand, then rebuild the commitment case with verified costs.
Monthly revenue$105,300
Monthly fixed cost$45,011
Monthly variable cost$46,333
Monthly profit$13,955
Margin13.3%
Break-even22.3 moto cover monthly costs
Payback22.3 moto recover startup capital
Risk score60/100moderate
Startup cost$311,000
Monthly revenue, cost and profit
Monthly snapshot
What drives revenue and cost
Each area is sized by its share of the modelled steady-state month.
Revenue composition
Cost composition
What the numbers mean
Key metrics explained
Payback
Payback months of about 22.3 is a steady-state model result, while Cash payback months is not reached within the supplied 24-month simulation.
Margin
Margin of 13.3% leaves room for profit under the saved assumptions, but ingredient purchasing, batch yields and unsold stock need tight control to protect it.
Risk
The stress tests produce positive Monthly profit in 91.3% of simulated cases, conditional on their assumptions; they do not resolve the unverified premises, customer demand or real-world success probability.
Feasibility narrative
Location fit for this bakery / pastry shop
Bakery assessment for the York Street area and proposed 61 York Street site
The York Street area is worth considering for a bakery if the premises provide a visible, accessible entrance and support a genuinely bakery-led takeaway offer. The strongest argument is not an absence of competition: it is the opportunity to give customers a clear reason to choose fresh baked food over an established brunch café or a specialist Asian-inspired bakery. That opportunity remains conditional on verifying both the premises at 61 York Street and the routes customers actually use. [2][3]
Conditional assessment
The area offers a credible setting to test a differentiated bakery-led proposition, but the supplied evidence does not establish unmet demand. A focused baked range and convenient collection are more defensible starting choices than a generic brunch café. Proceed only if the actual premises support that operation and observed routes make the entrance convenient; the unverified site and unfinished street-project evidence cannot yet carry the decision. [2][3][5][6]
Feasibility narrative
Location fit for this bakery / pastry shop — continued
Feasibility narrative
Location fit for this bakery / pastry shop — continued
Feasibility narrative
Location fit for this bakery / pastry shop — continued
Feasibility narrative
Location fit for this bakery / pastry shop — continued
Sources and research limits6 sources
- Your feedback on improvements and traffic changes at York, Lang and Jamison streets, Sydney · street; evidence as of 2026-10-28
- York Street Café | Sydney Café - Industry Beans · street; evidence as of 2026-10-28
- SALTED. Cafe & Bakery | Sydney CBD | Breakfast & Lunch · area; evidence as of 2026-10-28
- Project Scope - George Street North Pedestrianisation · street; evidence as of 2022-12-12
- Extending the pedestrian boulevard on George Street, Sydney · street; evidence as of 2026-10-28
- George Street north – permanent upgrade works begin · street; evidence as of 2026-10-28
- The supplied originals do not establish the building identity, current occupant, fit-out, availability or approved bakery use at 61 York Street.
- The project pages do not establish works at the entrance to 61 York Street or outdoor-dining rights for that address.
- The broader project is marked in progress, but the intersection's completion date and implementation of the proposed left-turn ban remain unconfirmed.
- Merchant pages establish advertised locations, offers and hours, not sales or financial performance.
- The supplied evidence does not measure pedestrian traffic at the entrance or establish bakery demand.
- Unresolved after the targeted follow-up: Is there a publicly accessible City of Sydney planning record for 61 York Street that establishes the building identity and any approved bakery or food-premises use?
- Unresolved after the targeted follow-up: Can a current City of Sydney or Transport for NSW construction update confirm the delivery status and completion timing of the York, Lang and Jamison intersection upgrade, including the proposed left-turn ban?
Public-source desktop research, not a premises inspection. Commercial interpretations and operating proposals are judgments to validate, not measured demand.
Competitor intelligence
Who you're up against nearby
Comparable bakery / pastry shop businesses around this location, so you can spot saturation and the gaps they leave open.
Similar businesses nearby37Within 1500 m
On your block3Within 400 m
Nearest competitor48 mClosest of the same type
Average rating4.39/5Based on ~832 reviews
Competitor proximity
Competitor intelligence
Market signals around this location
Demand anchors — 100/100 (high)
| Residential services | high |
|---|---|
| Shopping activity | high |
| Family activity | high |
| Health activity | high |
Transformed supporting-place score within 1.5 km; it does not measure customer visits.
Competitor offer mix
- Offered
- Not offered
- Not published
- Contactless payment100%37 of 37 confirmed profiles
- Credit cards100%37 of 37 confirmed profiles
- Parking listed100%24 of 24 confirmed profiles · 13 not published
- Takeaway100%35 of 35 confirmed profiles · 2 not published
- Vegetarian options100%11 of 11 confirmed profiles · 26 not published
- Dine-in96%24 of 25 confirmed profiles · 12 not published
- Accessible entrance86%25 of 29 confirmed profiles · 8 not published
- Dogs allowed80%4 of 5 confirmed profiles · 32 not published
- Suitable for groups80%4 of 5 confirmed profiles · 32 not published
- Delivery77%20 of 26 confirmed profiles · 11 not published
- Outdoor seating77%10 of 13 confirmed profiles · 24 not published
- Reservations56%5 of 9 confirmed profiles · 28 not published
- Accessible toilets50%2 of 4 confirmed profiles · 33 not published
- Customer toilets44%8 of 18 confirmed profiles · 19 not published
- Accessible parking19%3 of 16 confirmed profiles · 21 not published
- Children's menu13%1 of 8 confirmed profiles · 29 not published
Percentages include only competitor profiles with confirmed information for that feature.
Competitor intelligence
Direct competitors nearby
Comparable businesses returned for this location, ordered by distance.
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Competitor intelligence
Direct competitors nearby — continued
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Competitor intelligence
Direct competitors nearby — continued
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- 20Fujimi Bakehouse - Regent Place805 m away · Regent Place, Level 9/501 George St, Sydney NSW 2000, AustraliaTakeaway · Dine-in · Accessible entrance
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- 23Bellucci Dessert Cafe826 m away · 580 George St, Sydney NSW 2000, AustraliaDelivery · Takeaway · Dine-in
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Competitor intelligence
Direct competitors nearby — continued
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- 28Blue Moon Cakes & Coffee Thai Cafe1.19 km away · 704 George St, Haymarket NSW 2000, AustraliaTakeaway · Credit cards · Contactless payment
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Competitor intelligence
Direct competitors nearby — continued
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Competitor intelligence
Opening hours
Published trading patterns across nearby competitors reveal thin coverage and potential early or late trading gaps.
Typical opening08:36 – 19:36Average open–close window
Days open per week6.7 / 7Average across competitors
Open before 7am14%Share of competitors — early-bird gap if low
Open past 8pm56%Share of competitors — evening gap if low
Trading hours across the field
Price positioning
Published prices nearby and beyond
Published nearby prices and, when available, a separately labeled broader-area benchmark. Validate your own offer and unit economics separately.
Local prices · within 1.5 km
$1.00 – $140.0027 priced shops
$ Budget · most common published level
Decision support
Pros and trade-offs
Assess a focused bread-and-pastry bakery with convenient takeaway collection and on-site production, rather than a broad brunch café or late-night dessert venue.
What this means for your decision
Commercial judgmentThe strongest opportunity is a dependable baked-food offer that customers choose repeatedly, with straightforward collection and disciplined production. The consequential trade-off is committing to skilled labour and specialised premises before either conversion or site suitability is established. Pursue the concept only when the verified premises and paid product tests support it; change the format if demand is mainly coffee-led or destination-led, and reconsider the location if practical access or production feasibility cannot be secured.
Basis and sources
- Industry Beans advertises a café at 38–40 York Street, Sydney, offering brunch, coffee, dine-in, takeaway and app-based ordering. Its advertised hours are 7am–3:30pm on weekdays and 8am–3:30pm on weekends. · street · Evidence as of 2026-10-28
- SALTED. advertises a bakery and café at 68 Erskine Street, Sydney, offering salt bread, Vietnamese coffee and Asian-inspired sweet and savoury baked goods. Its advertised hours are 8am–4pm Monday to Saturday, with Sunday closed. · area · Evidence as of 2026-10-28
- Verified location research and unresolved limitations
- Saved assumptions and deterministic results
- General business judgment
Decision support
Pros and trade-offs — continued
Decision support
Pros and trade-offs — continued
Decision support
Pros and trade-offs — continued
Local developments
What's shaping this market
Cited context across regulation, costs, pricing, demand, competition, suppliers and recent local activity. These developments do not change the modelled figures.
Regulations & licensing
City of Sydney says a development application may be needed before changing or occupying premisesCityNeutral
The City of Sydney states that before making changes to a building or occupying premises in its area, a development application may be required, and it provides an application search and tracking tool for current and historical matters. NSW Planning also provides a state application tracker for relevant development applications.
For this business: A bakery or pastry shop fit-out should confirm whether the proposed works, signage, outdoor seating or use change need DA approval before committing to the lease or build-out.
Source: Development applications - City of Sydney — https://www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/development-applications
Local business updates
The new Sydney Fish Market had opened in January 2026, adding a major inner-city food destination at Blackwattle BayMetroTailwind2026-01-19
Infrastructure NSW said the new Sydney Fish Market officially opened on 19 January 2026 after construction was completed in November 2025. Planning NSW described the precinct as opening with over 40 retailers and becoming a new seafood and dining destination in Sydney.
For this business: For an inner-city bakery or pastry shop, this may strengthen destination food traffic in the Pyrmont/Blackwattle Bay area, but the operator should verify whether nearby pedestrian flows convert into takeaway demand for sweet goods rather than staying seafood-led.
Project status: CompletedDate mentioned by source:
Source: New Sydney Fish Market Grand Opening | Infrastructure NSW — https://www.infrastructure.nsw.gov.au/news/new-sydney-fish-market-grand-opening/
Sydney Trains track maintenance was disrupting services between North Sydney, Central, the City Circle and Turrella through 13 November 2026MetroHeadwind
Transport for NSW said Sydney Trains would carry out maintenance between North Sydney and Central, and between the City Circle and Turrella, from 14 October to 13 November 2026. The works were intended to improve reliability, but they also signaled intermittent rail disruption across the CBD rail network during the research window.
For this business: If the shop depends on rail-based lunchtime or commuter trade, verify station access, weekend trackwork and replacement-bus impacts before signing a lease or setting trading hours.
Project status: Under constructionDate mentioned by source:
Source: North Sydney to Central and City Circle to Turrella track maintenance ... — https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/system/files/media/documents/2026/north-sydney-to-central-and-city-circle-to-turrella-track-maintenance-14-october-to-13-november-2026.pdf
Customer voice
What customers value and what needs work
What customers value
- Fresh pastries and cakes with a light, balanced texture
Customers often praised the baked goods for tasting fresh and having a good texture, such as flaky pastry, soft sponge, creamy fillings, and desserts that were not overly sweet. This came up across cakes, croissants, tarts, pies, and specialty pastries.
- Friendly staff and welcoming service
Many reviews highlighted warm, helpful, and attentive staff who made customers feel welcome. In several cases, people specifically mentioned good hospitality, accommodating service, or staff going out of their way to help.
- Specialty desserts and signature items that felt worth seeking out
Customers enjoyed distinctive menu items like crepes, chimney cakes, cheese tarts, mochi cakes, and themed celebration cakes. The praise focused on memorable flavors, attractive presentation, and desserts that felt special for birthdays or treat runs.
- Good coffee and drinks alongside the pastries
Several customers liked the coffee, matcha, hot chocolate, or soft serve that came with the baked goods. The drinks were often described as a strong match for the dessert experience rather than just an add-on.
What frustrates customers
- Pastries or cakes that felt stale, dry, or underwhelming
Negative reviews often said the baked items did not taste fresh, were dry or dense, or lacked the expected flavor and texture. In some cases, the product looked better than it tasted.
- Prices or portions that felt hard to justify
Some customers felt the bakery items were expensive for the size or quality they received. This criticism appeared with cakes, pastries, and drinks when people expected more for the price they paid.
- Service interactions that felt rude, rushed, or unhelpful
A few reviews focused on poor interactions at the counter, including dismissive tone, lack of courtesy, or staff rushing the customer. The issue was the way the order was handled rather than the food itself.
- Freshness or preparation problems with cakes and desserts
Some customers were unhappy when cakes arrived frozen, stale, or not ready in the condition they expected. These reviews centered on product readiness and freshness for pickup or immediate eating.
Recent feedback
30 July 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
- Late-night dessert runs and fresh-made specialties
Recent visitors liked being able to stop in for crepes, chimney cakes, and other sweets later in the day. They described the desserts as freshly made, generous, and worth the wait.
- Fresh cakes and pastries that stood out for flavor and presentation
Recent reviews frequently praised cakes for being fresh, beautifully made, and not too sweet, with flavors that felt balanced and appealing. This came through in birthday cakes, specialty slices, and boxed pastries.
- Friendly service and a pleasant place to sit in
Recent customers often mentioned warm staff and a relaxed atmosphere, whether they were dining in briefly or grabbing something to go. The setting itself was part of the appeal, especially for coffee breaks and casual catch-ups.
- A few recent complaints about value or product quality
Recent lower-rated visits pointed to issues like small portions, stale pastries, or desserts that did not match expectations. These comments were usually about the item itself or its price rather than the whole venue.
Local data
Neighbourhood profile
Local economy
| Resident population | 586 | Australian Bureau of Statistics — 2021 Census (GCP) · 2021-08-10 |
|---|---|---|
| Population density | 5,998/km² | Australian Bureau of Statistics — 2021 Census (GCP) · 2021-08-10 |
| Daytime (worker) population | 290,697 | Australian Bureau of Statistics — 2021 Census (Place of Work) · 2021-08-10 |
| Median age | 33 yrs | Australian Bureau of Statistics — 2021 Census (GCP) · 2021-08-10 |
| Number of households | 286 | Australian Bureau of Statistics — 2021 Census (GCP) · 2021-08-10 |
| Average household size | 2 | Australian Bureau of Statistics — 2021 Census (GCP) · 2021-08-10 |
| Median household income | $125,632 | Australian Bureau of Statistics — 2021 Census (GCP) · 2021-08-10 |
| Unemployment rate | 5.2% | Australian Bureau of Statistics — 2021 Census (GCP) · 2021-08-10 |
| Employment rate | 94.8% | Australian Bureau of Statistics — 2021 Census (GCP) · 2021-08-10 |
| Bachelor degree or higher | 57.6% | Australian Bureau of Statistics — 2021 Census (GCP) · 2021-08-10 |
| Residential median rent | $2,990/mo | Australian Bureau of Statistics — 2021 Census (GCP) · 2021-08-10 |
| Leading industries |
| Australian Bureau of Statistics — 2021 Census (GCP) · 2021-08-10 |
Local map data
| Small business density | 196 | Local map data · 2026-10-28 |
|---|---|---|
| Foot traffic index | 89/100 · Very high | Local map data · 2026-10-28 |
| Schools nearby | 24 | Local map data · 2026-10-28 |
24-month outlook
Two-year forecast
Modelled month by month from the saved assumptions, including the ramp from launch to steady-state trading.
Ramp to monthly profit
Modelled monthly operating profit as demand matures over the first year. The dashed line marks break-even (zero profit).
Break-even cash trajectory
Cumulative cash position including the upfront startup outlay. Crossing zero means startup capital has been recovered.
24-month outlook
Two-year forecast — continued
Revenue ramp (first year)
Modelled monthly revenue as the business ramps from opening to steady-state demand.
Customer & transaction volume
Modelled monthly customer transactions (visits, orders, covers, cycles or units, depending on the business) as demand ramps to steady state. Divide by trading days for the daily average.
Cashflow view
Cumulative cash across the full projection
Cashflow view
Month-by-month cash
Starts with the upfront outlay, then tracks each month. Year-end rows highlight the annual cash position.
| Month | Net cash this month | Cumulative cash |
|---|---|---|
| Start | -$311,000 | -$311,000 |
| M1 | -$27,321 | -$338,321 |
| M2 | -$22,162 | -$360,483 |
| M3 | -$17,002 | -$377,485 |
| M4 | -$11,842 | -$389,327 |
| M5 | -$6,683 | -$396,010 |
| M6 | -$1,523 | -$397,534 |
| M7 | $3,636 | -$393,897 |
| M8 | $8,796 | -$385,101 |
| M9 | $13,955 | -$371,146 |
| M10 | $13,955 | -$357,190 |
| M11 | $13,955 | -$343,235 |
| M12Year 1 | $13,955 | -$329,279 |
Cashflow view
Month-by-month cash — continued
| Month | Net cash this month | Cumulative cash |
|---|---|---|
| M13 | $13,955 | -$315,324 |
| M14 | $13,955 | -$301,369 |
| M15 | $13,955 | -$287,413 |
| M16 | $13,955 | -$273,458 |
| M17 | $13,955 | -$259,502 |
| M18 | $13,955 | -$245,547 |
| M19 | $13,955 | -$231,591 |
| M20 | $13,955 | -$217,636 |
| M21 | $13,955 | -$203,680 |
| M22 | $13,955 | -$189,725 |
| M23 | $13,955 | -$175,769 |
| M24Year 2 | $13,955 | -$161,814 |
Deeper checks
Outcome range and profit levers
Pessimistic (p10)$568monthly profit
Median (p50)$13,677monthly profit
Optimistic (p90)$25,878monthly profit
Chance of profit91.3%across simulations
Biggest profit levers
| Trading Days per Month | ±$5,897 / month |
|---|---|
| Ingredient COGS | ±$3,370 / month |
| Average Bread Price | ±$3,314 / month |
| Average Pastry Price | ±$3,077 / month |
| Bread Units per Day | ±$3,008 / month |
| Pastry Units per Day | ±$2,888 / month |
Business insights
Bakery / pastry production and wastage model
Models bread and pastry unit volume, ingredient COGS, packaging, wastage, labour intensity and oven-heavy setup capital.
Model version v2
wastageproduction yieldbakery throughputingredient marginmorning demand
Monthly bread units10,920Bread units sold across the trading month.
Monthly pastry units6,760Pastry units sold across the trading month.
Contribution margin56%Revenue left after variable costs, before fixed overhead and startup recovery.
Fixed-cost intensity49.3%Share of total monthly cost that must be covered even if demand drops.
Startup capital cover3 monthsStartup capital expressed as months of steady-state revenue — e.g. 2.3 means the upfront investment equals about 2.3 months of revenue (not a dollar figure).
Unit economics and operating checks
Deterministic statistics for margin quality, overhead pressure and capital recovery.
| Monthly contribution | $58,967 | Contribution covers fixed overhead. |
|---|---|---|
| Operating margin | 13.3% | The steady-state model is profitable. |
| Cash payback | Not reached | Payback is not reached within the simulated ramp. |
- Production planning should match daypart demand because unsold fresh stock quickly becomes waste.
- Oven and prep capacity need to support peak morning output without overstaffing quiet periods.
Business insights model
Business model visuals
Revenue and cost by line
For each revenue line the bar length is its monthly revenue, split into the cost of goods (COGS) needed to produce it and the gross margin left over. This shows both your revenue mix and how much of each line is eaten by cost.
Cost structure
Compares variable costs with fixed overhead to show operational leverage.
Capital exposure
Compares startup capital with the deepest simulated cash trough.
Industry benchmarks
How your numbers compare
Each modelled metric is checked against a typical healthy range for this business type.
| Metric | Your model | Healthy band | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Contribution after wastage | 56% | 50% – 68% | In healthy bandFresh bakery sales need enough margin after ingredients, packaging and daily wastage. |
| Net operating margin | 13.3% | 6% – 16% | In healthy bandLabour, rent and utilities keep bakery net margins modest even with strong volume. |
| Oven and fit-out payback | Not reached | 18 months – 42 months | Above bandProduction equipment and fit-out commonly take 1.5-3.5 years to recover. |
Action plan
Prioritised recommendations
- Keep lease and equipment commitments conditional on a verified, technically suitable bakery premises.
- Test a focused baked range through paid purchases before adding café service or extended hours.
- Use quote-backed costs and a checked roster to assess cash exposure before committing capital.
Report intel
Evidence notes and next steps
Bottom line
The evidence supports choosing a focused proposition to test, not signing a lease or accepting the saved sales assumptions. Resolve premises suitability first, then paid customer conversion, then the complete operating and cash model. Broader activity indicators and competitor reviews help frame those tests but cannot substitute for them.
Report intel
Evidence notes and next steps — continued
Report intel
Evidence notes and next steps — continued
Appendix
Assumptions used
Staffing
| Tom — Head baker | 40 hours/week at $40/hour |
|---|---|
| Aisha — Baker | 38 hours/week at $34.50/hour |
| Ben — Pastry cook | 38 hours/week at $33/hour |
| Grace — Shop supervisor | 38 hours/week at $32/hour |
| Ethan — Sales assistant (casual) | 25 hours/week at $31/hour |
| Chloe — Sales assistant (casual) | 25 hours/week at $31/hour |
| Payroll method | Detailed staff roster |
Startup Capital
| Lease Bond | 27,000 AUD |
|---|---|
| Fit-out Cost | 140,000 AUD |
| Ovens and Equipment Cost | 110,000 AUD |
| Opening Ingredients and Stock | 12,000 AUD |
| Launch Marketing | 12,000 AUD |
| Licences and Setup | 10,000 AUD |
Fixed Costs
| Monthly Rent | 9,000 AUD |
|---|---|
| Monthly Insurance | 500 AUD |
| Monthly Marketing | 1,500 AUD |
| Monthly Utilities | 2,800 AUD |
| Other Fixed Costs | 1,200 AUD |
Variable Costs
| Card Processing Fee | 0.01 % |
|---|---|
| Production Wastage | 0.06 % |
| Ingredient COGS | 0.32 % |
| Packaging Cost per Unit | 0.28 AUD |
Revenue
| Bread Units per Day | 420 units |
|---|---|
| Pastry Units per Day | 260 units |
| Trading Days per Month | 26 days |
Pricing
| Average Bread Price | 5 AUD |
|---|---|
| Average Pastry Price | 7.5 AUD |
Appendix
Report notes
- Local map data
- Local map aggregate data
- Local map data reviews
- Web search
- New Sydney Fish Market Grand Opening | Infrastructure NSW — https://www.infrastructure.nsw.gov.au/news/new-sydney-fish-market-grand-opening/
- Development applications - City of Sydney — https://www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/development-applications
- North Sydney to Central and City Circle to Turrella track maintenance ... — https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/system/files/media/documents/2026/north-sydney-to-central-and-city-circle-to-turrella-track-maintenance-14-october-to-13-november-2026.pdf
- Official census statistics
- smallbizsim deterministic feasibility model
This report is an indicative feasibility simulation and not financial, legal, or investment advice. Validate the key assumptions, local data and any cited developments with qualified professionals before signing a lease, buying a business, or committing capital.
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